Week 10 Is Here: Can We Do It Again?

We’re back here with Week 10! I did damn well last week, going 13–2, and that’s going to be hard to replicate. But I’m looking forward to trying to match it or even surpass it. That brings my overall record to 83–52–1 on the year. Thirty games over .500? I’ll very happily take that!

We’re back with another week of picks and takes. Let’s dive into it and see how I do. There are four teams on a bye this week: the Bears, Broncos, Eagles, and Bucs. We also have another 9:30 game this week, so it’s another Sunday full of football!

Thursday Night Game!

Commanders (2–5–1) vs. Giants (5–2–1) — Giants win, 24–20

We’ve got a divisional matchup here that ended in a tie the last time these two teams played. And what an odd ending that was! The Giants come in off a win, while the Commanders are coming off a loss.

The Commanders have a great opportunity to run the ball well. They average 4.5 yards per carry and 118 rushing yards per game, and they’re going up against a defense that allows 123 yards on 4.6 yards per carry.

Now, the Giants also allow the second-most rushing yards to quarterbacks. That could be a good opportunity for the Commanders to add the wrinkle of some read options and RPOs against this Giants defense and use Daniels’ legs.

On the other side, the Giants should look to take advantage of this passing defense. The Commanders allow the fourth-most passing yards and touchdowns to quarterbacks. McCarthy and Nabers could have a big night connecting. Washington also allows the fourth-most receptions to wide receivers.

On top of that, Likely could have a great game. He’s been great all year, and shoutout to CCU!

The Commanders allow the fourth-most receiving yards to tight ends and the second-most touchdowns to them. I like the Giants in tonight’s game, and I don’t think this one will end in a tie again. Giants win, 24–20.

International Game – Munich, Germany!

Patriots (5–4) vs. Lions (6–2) — Lions win, 34–31

We’re back with an international game, but this time we’re heading to Munich, Germany!

The Patriots come in off a loss to the Packers, while the Lions are coming off a win against Miami. The Lions will look to bounce back after a poor offensive performance for one of the top offenses in the league. The Patriots also need to bounce back after an 18-point loss to Green Bay and a poor performance from Maye.

We’ve got two offenses that run the ball well. The Patriots average 119 rushing yards on 4.2 yards per carry, while the Lions average 127 yards on 4.4 yards per carry.

The Patriots are down Stevenson and Henderson this week and will look to Corey Kiner and Lan Larison to step up. They’ll be going against a defense that may only allow 94 rushing yards per game, but opponents are still averaging 4.1 yards per carry. I’ll be interested to see how these two perform, but they should have a good opportunity against this defense.

Maye should also have a great chance at a bounce-back game, as the Lions allow the most passing yards and touchdowns to quarterbacks. The Lions also allow the third-most receptions to wide receivers.

St. Brown and Williams could be in for a big day, especially since the Patriots’ defense ranks in the top 10 in yards, receptions, and touchdowns allowed to wide receivers.

Goff will also look to bounce back after his poor performance last week. I do like the Lions to win this one, as one of the top offenses in the league gets back on track. 34–31.

The 1 O’Clock Slate

Chiefs (6–2) vs. Falcons (3–6) — Chiefs win, 27–20

We’ve got two teams that can run the ball well. The Chiefs average 137 rushing yards per game on 5.1 yards per carry, while the Falcons average 137 yards on 4.8 yards per carry.

Both teams have tremendous running backs with Kenneth Walker and Bijan Robinson. Walker was back over 100 yards last week against the Jets and has a great chance to do it again this week. The Falcons give up 118 rushing yards per game on 4.4 yards per carry.

The Chiefs are also going up against a defense that allows the fifth-most completions to quarterbacks and the seventh-most receptions to wide receivers. It’ll be interesting to see how much the Chiefs try to get Josh Downs involved after just trading for him. I expect his role to grow over the next couple of weeks.

The Falcons are also in the top 10 in yards and touchdowns allowed to running backs, so Walker could find the end zone again this week.

For the Falcons, Bijan was back over 100 rushing yards after not hitting that mark in his previous three games. The Chiefs only allow 97 rushing yards per game on 3.6 yards per carry.

The Chiefs do allow the fourth-most receiving yards to running backs, so if the run game is a little slow, that could be a good way to get the ball to Bijan in the open field.

The Chiefs are also in the top 10 in receptions and yards allowed to tight ends, so Pitts could have a big day. Honestly, though, I doubt it. He’s only had two catches over the last two weeks.

I like the Chiefs to win this one. I just can’t see Penix outdueling Mahomes. Chiefs win, 27–20.

Texans (3–5) vs. Browns (5–4) — Texans win, 24–17

After starting 0–4, the Texans seem to be finding their groove. They’re 3–1 over their last four games and come in off a 22-point win over the Chargers. The Browns, meanwhile, are coming off an overtime loss and are riding a two-game losing streak.

Watson is set to return to the starting lineup this week after missing last week with a concussion.

The Texans have been able to pass the ball well, averaging 269 yards per game, but they’ve struggled in the running game, managing only 87 rushing yards per game on 3.6 yards per carry.

They have a great chance to get the running game going this week, as the Browns give up 130 rushing yards per game on 4.7 yards per carry. The Browns also allow the second-most rushing yards to running backs, so maybe the Texans can exploit that matchup.

The Texans’ run defense has done a good job. Even though they give up 103 rushing yards per game, opponents average only 3.9 yards per carry. The Browns’ offense has struggled to run the ball, averaging 97 yards per game on 3.9 yards per carry.

Now, the Texans do allow the third-most passing yards to quarterbacks. Can Watson and the receivers take advantage? The Browns will have an opportunity, but the Texans also rank near the top in limiting yards, receptions, and touchdowns to wide receivers. They also allow the most rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks, and Watson is still mobile enough to score with his legs.

I do think the Texans will win this one. I think their offense will be able to score just enough to put the game out of reach for the Browns. Texans win, 24–17.

Vikings (6–2) vs. Packers (6–3) — Vikings win, 27–24

We’ve got a divisional rivalry game here. The Vikings come in off a loss, while the Packers are coming off a win.

It hasn’t been officially announced yet, but Kirk Cousins is expected to start this week after the Vikings just traded for him from the Raiders. The Vikings will look to Kirk to get this offense going. They’re currently averaging only 160 passing yards per game.

Kirk being back should be huge for Jetta, who just hasn’t seemed to get going so far this year. The Vikings have run the ball well, averaging 106 yards per game on 4.0 yards per carry. They’re going up against a defense that allows 109 yards on 4.0 yards per carry.

The Packers also allow the second-most receptions to wide receivers, so Jetta and Addison could be in for some big days with Kirk Cousins at quarterback.

The Vikings’ pass defense has been great, allowing only 161 passing yards per game. However, they’re going up against a team that is very much one-dimensional. The Packers average 279 passing yards per game but can only muster 68 rushing yards on 3.0 yards per carry.

Even though teams know the Packers are going to throw the ball, they’re still 6–3. If the Vikings can shut down this passing attack, it could be a long day for Green Bay’s offense.

The Vikings have lost two straight and hope Kirk can put them back in the win column. I think he does. Vikings win, 27–24.

Dolphins (1–7) vs. Colts (2–7) — Colts win, 20–17

We’ve got two teams that have run the ball pretty well. The Dolphins average 117 rushing yards per game on 4.4 yards per carry, while the Colts average 115 yards on 4.2 yards per carry.

One of the big stories coming out of the trade deadline is that the Colts didn’t trade Taylor. He should continue to be heavily involved in the offense, as usual.

The Dolphins are starting Kyle McCord this week, as Malik Willis is out with an injury. For Miami, the Colts’ defense allows 137 rushing yards per game on 4.9 yards per carry. The Dolphins should rely on the running game to take some pressure off McCord this week.

Both passing attacks have been underwhelming. The Dolphins average 164 passing yards per game, while the Colts average 173. However, both defenses give up at least 214 passing yards per game.

The Dolphins also allow the fourth-most passing touchdowns to quarterbacks. They rank in the top 10 in receptions, touchdowns, and yards allowed to tight ends, so Tyler Warren could possibly have a big day.

As much as I would love the Dolphins to win to help the Jets’ draft pick, I do think the Colts get the win here. Colts win in a close one, 20–17.

Panthers (3–5) vs. Saints (3–5) — Panthers win, 34–30

Another divisional game this week! The Panthers come in riding a three-game losing streak and would really love to end that this week. The Saints, meanwhile, are coming off an overtime win against the Browns.

The Panthers’ offense performed well to start the season, but lately, they’ve seemed to struggle. They should have a great opportunity to get back on track this week.

The Saints give up 133 rushing yards per game on 4.5 yards per carry, while the Panthers average 101 rushing yards on 4.3 yards per carry. The Saints rank in the top three in rushing yards and touchdowns allowed to running backs, so Chuba Hubbard could have a big day.

The Saints also allow the fifth-most passing yards to quarterbacks, so Bryce Young and company should have a chance to get back into their groove this week.

Now, the Saints have struggled to run the ball at times, averaging 95 yards per game on 3.8 yards per carry. However, the Panthers’ defense gives up 133 rushing yards per game on 4.6 yards per carry. The Panthers also allow the sixth-most rushing yards to running backs and the most rushing touchdowns to them.

I think this could be a high-scoring game, and I like the Panthers this week. Panthers win, 34–30.

Jaguars (6–2) vs. Titans (1–7) — Jaguars win, 30–17

Another divisional game this week! The Jags come in riding a two-game winning streak, while the Titans are on a two-game losing streak.

This should be another great opportunity for the Jaguars’ offense to perform well. They’re going up against a Titans defense that allows 396 total yards per game. The Titans give up 258 through the air and 124 on the ground on 4.2 yards per carry.

The Jaguars average 117 rushing yards per game on 4.1 yards per carry, so this should be a great opportunity for Tuten to have a good game against this defense.

It could also be a big day for Trevor Lawrence, as the Titans give up the second-most passing yards to quarterbacks, along with the most receptions and receiving yards to wide receivers. Parker Washington, Jakobi Meyers, and maybe Brian Thomas Jr. could all explode this week.

The Titans have run the ball decently, averaging 99 yards per game on 4.2 yards per carry. However, they’re going up against a defense that allows only 89 rushing yards per game on 3.7 yards per carry.

The Jaguars do allow the fifth-most receiving yards to wide receivers, but this Titans offense doesn’t give me much confidence that they’ll be able to take advantage of that.

I think the Jags win this one pretty easily, 30–17.

4 O’Clock Slate

Rams (5–4) vs. Cardinals (3–6) — Rams win, 27–17

We have another divisional game here. The Rams come in riding a three-game winning streak, while the Cardinals are coming off a loss to Seattle.

The Rams are banged up at wide receiver, with Nacua and Adams both out. The Cardinals are also dealing with a quarterback change, as rookie Carson Beck is starting this week with Gardner Minshew out for the year with an elbow injury.

The Cardinals have already beaten the Rams by two points back in Week 6, so Los Angeles will look to avenge that loss.

The Rams average 390 total yards on offense, with 254 passing yards and 125 rushing yards per game on 4.7 yards per carry. They’re going up against a defense that gives up 352 total yards per game, including 121 rushing yards on 4.2 yards per carry. Williams and Corum could have decent days against this defense.

The Cardinals also allow the third-most passing touchdowns to quarterbacks, and I would expect the Rams to bounce back after their poor performance against Arizona earlier in the year.

I would also expect the Rams to try to pressure Carson Beck and force the Cardinals to rely on their running game.

I do expect the Rams to win this game against the Cards and bounce back from their earlier loss. Rams win, 27–17.

Seahawks (5–4) vs. Raiders (4–5) — Seahawks win, 27–14

Number one overall pick Francisco Mendoza will be making his first career start this week after the Raiders traded Kirk Cousins just this week.

Drew Lock is starting again for Seattle, as Sam Darnold is still sidelined with an injury.

The Raiders have struggled to run the ball this year, averaging just 71 yards per game on 2.9 yards per carry. They’ll need to be able to run the ball to take some pressure off Mendoza.

Now, Seattle’s rushing defense allows only 80 yards per game on 3.3 yards per carry. So the Raiders will have an uphill battle trying to run the ball well against this defense.

Seattle should have a good chance to establish the run, as the Raiders give up 151 rushing yards per game on 5.0 yards per carry. They also allow the most rushing yards to running backs.

The Raiders do allow the second-most passing touchdowns to quarterbacks, so Drew Lock could connect with JSN for a score or maybe two.

I fully expect the Seahawks to bring the pressure, and I think it might be a long day for Mendoza and company. I think Seattle wins this one easily, 27–14.

49ers (7–1) vs. Cowboys (4–5) — 49ers win, 27–20

The Dallas offense has performed well, putting up 368 total yards per game. However, their defense is giving up 385 yards per game, and I expect the Niners to take advantage of that.

The Cowboys give up 147 rushing yards per game on 5.0 yards per carry, while the Niners average 135 yards on 4.6 yards per carry. I expect CMC and the backfield to take advantage of this defense and exploit that matchup.

The Cowboys also allow the fourth-most touchdowns to running backs, so CMC could find the end zone as well.

The Niners’ defense does allow the fifth-most receiving yards to running backs this year and the most receptions to them. The Cowboys should look to exploit that matchup, but it’s hard when you have Lamb and Pickens on the outside. Those are two tremendous wide receivers.

I do think the Niners will take this game. 49ers win, 27–20.

Sunday Night

Steelers (6–2) vs. Bengals (6–2) — Bengals win, 24–20

Another divisional matchup here!

The Bengals are similar to the Packers in that they’re one-dimensional at times. They struggle to run the ball, averaging only 85 rushing yards per game on 3.9 yards per carry. However, they’re averaging 285 passing yards per game.

When you have Joe Burrow at quarterback and Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins as your receivers, you’re in good hands. The Bengals arguably have two number-one receivers.

The Steelers allow the seventh-most completions to quarterbacks, and I fully expect the Bengals to come out slinging it.

While Cincinnati is going up against a defense that gives up 122 rushing yards per game on 4.1 yards per carry, I still see the Bengals relying heavily on that passing game.

The Steelers have run the ball well, averaging 117 yards per game on 4.9 yards per carry. The defense they’re going up against gives up 126 yards per game on 5.0 yards per carry. Jaylen Warren and Rico Dowdle might run all over the Bengals.

Do we get a vintage Rodgers game this week? Eh, probably not, but it would be amazing to see these two quarterbacks in a shootout.

I think the Bengals are actually going to take this one, 24–20.

Monday Night

Chargers (0–8) vs. Ravens (4–5) — Chargers win, 27–24

The Chargers are still searching for that first win. Is this the week they finally get it?

They’re going up against the Ravens and their newly acquired quarterback, Jacoby Brissett, who they traded for last week following the news about Lamar Jackson and Tyler Huntley.

Derrick Henry has gone four straight weeks without a 100-yard rushing game. In fact, he hasn’t even reached 60 rushing yards in any of those games. They need to get him going again.

They have a chance against a defense that gives up 122 rushing yards per game on 4.1 yards per carry. The Ravens are currently averaging 137 rushing yards per game on 4.7 yards per carry, so it would be nice to see Henry put up similar numbers this week.

Jacoby Brissett should help because he has had a 3,000-yard season before, during his second year in the league when he started 15 games. He should at least help open things up for Henry with the passing game. Of course, I still expect the Chargers to focus on Henry and load the box.

The Chargers do allow the most rushing touchdowns to running backs, so Henry could find the end zone.

Now, for the Chargers, they average 114 rushing yards per game on 4.1 yards per carry. However, the Ravens’ defense only gives up 99 yards on 3.6 yards per carry.

The Ravens do allow the sixth-most receiving yards to wide receivers, but Herbert hasn’t seemed like his normal self. Is this the game where he shows some signs of his former self? I’d hope so!

I’m going to say we do get that performance, and Herbert leads the Chargers to their first win. Chargers win, 27–24.

And, As Always, the Final Game!!! The Jets!

Bills (7–1) vs. Jets (2–7) — Bills win, 32–24

The Bills come in off a win, while the Jets, of course, come in off a loss.

The Bills are one of the best offensive teams in the league, averaging 400 total yards per game. They run the ball for 146 yards per game on 4.5 yards per carry. They’re going up against a Jets defense that ranks in the top 10 in rushing yards allowed to running backs, so James Cook could still have a big day.

The Jets also rank in the top 10 in passing touchdowns allowed to quarterbacks, so Allen could have a field day against this defense. While the Jets only allow 197 passing yards per game, can Allen and company surpass that? I think so.

The Jets are rushing for 105 yards per game on 4.1 yards per carry, but the Bills’ defense is only giving up 91 yards per game on 3.9 yards per carry. It might be a tough day for the Jets’ running game.

The Bills’ defense also ranks in the top 10 in limiting yards, touchdowns, and completions to quarterbacks. Does Geno have a big day? Hopefully!

The Bills do allow the most receiving touchdowns to wide receivers, but they also rank in the top 10 in receptions and receiving yards allowed to running backs. Wilson and Hall could have a big day, along with the rest of the passing game.

I do think Buffalo wins this game, 32–24.

That’s a Wrap on Week 10!

I can’t wait for the first game tonight and the rest of the weekend! We should have some good college football again this weekend, and we’ve already had some great college basketball games so far. Along with hockey and the NBA, we’re in great shape!

There are also rumors that the Mets are favorites to land Tarik Skubal??? I won’t believe it until I see the announcement that he actually signs, but I’d absolutely love it!

As always, tune in next week to see my picks for the next slate of games and how I did this week. I appreciate everyone!

Lace up. Tap in.

– Jett Garden