Week 5 Is Here: Let’s See If I Can Keep This Going
Lace Code readers, we are BACK!!
Week 4 was definitely a step in the right direction with my picks. I went 9–7 last week, which brings me to 35–29 through the first four weeks. Definitely not the 11–5 record I had in Week 1, but hey, we’ll take being over .500 every week.
One thing that would definitely help would be if I actually stopped picking the Jets, but we’ll see if that changes. It might this week. Read to find out.
This week, we do have a couple of teams on a bye: the Kansas City Chiefs and Carolina Panthers. Honestly, with the 18-week schedule, I’d probably oppose having a bye this early, but we’ll see if the extra rest ends up benefiting both teams.
We’ve got another great slate of games, so let’s get into it!
Thursday Night Football
Buccaneers (0–4) vs. Cowboys (2–2)
Prediction: Buccaneers 24–21
We’re starting Week 5 with a matchup between two NFC teams: the Buccaneers and Cowboys.
The Bucs are starting Jalon Daniels for the second week in a row, but this matchup might actually benefit some of his strengths more. Dallas is giving up 158 rushing yards per game on 4.8 yards per carry, while also allowing the most rushing yards per game to quarterbacks.
The Bucs should look to focus on the ground game with Bucky Irving and company, but they should also use read options, designed quarterback runs, and RPOs to let Daniels take advantage of that Dallas defense and exploit its weakness against the run.
On the other side, this should be a great matchup for Jake Ferguson, but I’m also looking to see if CeeDee Lamb can have another amazing week after his performance in Week 4.
The Bucs are currently allowing only 204 passing yards per game, while Dallas is averaging 258 through the air. Tampa Bay is also allowing the sixth-most receiving yards to tight ends so far, so look for Dak Prescott and Ferguson to connect a few times this weekend. The Bucs are also seventh in touchdowns allowed to tight ends.
Dallas won a close one against Houston last week, while Tampa Bay is coming off a close loss to Green Bay. I actually like Daniels to get his first win.
The Dallas defense is allowing 392 yards per game, and I think this is going to be an offensive showing between these two teams. However, I think the Bucs defense can get a stop or two when they need it and preserve the win.
Prediction: Buccaneers 24–21
Sunday Morning Football
Eagles (2–2) vs. Jaguars (3–1)
Prediction: Jaguars 27–20
We have another London game this week with the Eagles taking on the Jaguars.
While Philadelphia’s offense hasn’t been good this year, this could be a great opportunity for them. They’re going up against a defense that allows 365 yards per game and is currently allowing the second-most passing yards at 280 per game.
Jalen Hurts struggled last week, but he’ll also be without DeVonta Smith. Lane Johnson also retired earlier this week, and the Eagles were already not playing up to their usual standard.
The Jaguars do give up the second-most receptions and receiving yards to running backs, which will be interesting to watch. I want to see if the Eagles use Will Shipley in that role since they’ll be without Saquon Barkley and Tank Bigsby.
For Jacksonville, they go up against a defense allowing 349 yards per game, so Liam Coen and this offense should be able to have a great game.
The Eagles allow 122 rushing yards per game at 4.0 yards per carry. Look for the Jaguars to use Tuten in the run game and open up more opportunities for Trevor Lawrence and the rest of the offense.
The Eagles have also allowed the most rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks, so we might see Jacksonville add in a few more designed runs for Trevor to take advantage of that.
Travis Hunter has been playing well at cornerback, and I’m looking forward to continuing to see him develop as the year goes on.
I do think Jacksonville wins this game.
Prediction: Jaguars 27–20
Sunday’s 1:00 PM Slate
Bears (3–1) vs. Packers (2–2)
Prediction: Bears 31–20
We have a divisional game, but we also have a rivalry here.
The Bears are without Caleb Williams again, and I believe Tyson Bagent should get his second start in a row. He had a nice showing last week against the Jets, going 25-of-34 for 268 yards and an interception while completing 73.5% of his passes.
But the Bears’ offense also ran for 232 yards.
The Bears will look to keep their offense rolling against a very vulnerable Packers defense. Green Bay is allowing 339 yards per game and 139 rushing yards per game on 4.2 yards per carry.
That’s something Ben Johnson and his offense will look to attack with D’Andre Swift, if healthy, and Kyle Monangai. They’ll lean on the backs to carry this offense and open things up for Bagent to make plays with Rome Odunze, Luther Burden, Colston Loveland, and the rest of the passing game.
The Packers, on the other hand, need to get this run game going. They should have a chance against a Bears defense that gives up just 102 rushing yards per game, but opponents are averaging 4.9 yards per carry.
That could help this struggling Packers run game, which is averaging just 58 yards per game on 3.2 yards per carry.
The Bears lead the league in rushing, and the Packers give up the third-most yards to running backs along with the second-most rushing touchdowns to them.
This Packers defense hasn’t shown me enough to think they’ll be able to hold the Bears down. If their offense can’t get going outside of the Jordan Love-to-Christian Watson connection, they might be in for a long day.
I think the Bears keep it rolling and pick up another win against their rival.
Lucky for the Bears, Rodgers isn’t on the other side for this matchup.
Prediction: Bears 31–20
Texans (0–4) vs. Titans (0–4)
Prediction: Texans 21–14
We have a battle of unbeatens!
Okay, maybe not the kind of unbeaten anyone wants to be, but one of these teams will finally walk out of here with a win.
This Texans defense does not look like the same unit that dominated teams last year. They’re giving up 361 yards per game and are top five in passing yards allowed. They’re also third in completions allowed to quarterbacks and are in the top five for receiving yards allowed to wide receivers.
This should be a game where Cam Ward and Tate maybe get rolling and have a huge day, but it has been reported that DeMeco Ryans will take over the defensive play-calling. We’ll see if that makes a difference.
The Texans offense has done a good job putting up 364 yards per game, including 264 through the air. Their ground game has struggled, though, with just 79 yards per game at 3.5 yards per carry.
They’ll look to get back on track against a Titans defense that allows 122 rushing yards per game.
Tennessee allows 343 yards per game on defense while only gaining 270 on offense. If the Texans defense continues to struggle, this could be a game where the Titans finally start putting things together.
But I don’t think it will be enough to overcome Houston.
Prediction: Texans 21–14
Bengals (2–2) vs. Dolphins (0–4)
Prediction: Bengals 27–17
Both defenses haven’t been great. Cincinnati is allowing 371 yards per game, while Miami is allowing 344, and both teams are giving up more than 220 passing yards per game.
It will be interesting to see the Bengals offense since Ja’Marr Chase could be out with a concussion, while Tee Higgins could also miss the game with an abductor injury.
If both are out, this could be a huge opportunity for Mike Gesicki.
The Dolphins allow the third-most yards to tight ends and the fourth-most receptions. If both of Cincinnati’s top targets are sidelined this week, Gesicki could be in line for a big game.
Dohnte Meyers could also be in for a big day if both Chase and Higgins are sidelined.
The Dolphins should look to run the ball. They average 4.3 yards per carry, while the Bengals give up 4.5 yards per carry. It could be a good way to get Ollie Gordon and Jaylen Wright going before letting Malik Willis sling it.
The Bengals allow the seventh-most passing yards per game, so this could be a game where Willis has a strong passing performance.
Greg Dulcich might be able to have a big day as well. The Bengals allow the most receiving yards to tight ends.
I think the Bengals defense will be able to get a couple of stops, and their offense will still perform well enough even without Chase and Higgins.
The Bengals get the win, and Miami falls to 0–5 like the Titans.
Prediction: Bengals 27–17
Raiders (3–1) vs. Patriots (2–2)
Prediction: Patriots 27–24
The Raiders are coming off their first loss of the season to the Chiefs after a surprising 3–0 start, while the Patriots are coming off a big win against the Bills.
We’ve got two offenses that are pretty close in yards per game, with the Raiders averaging 349 and the Patriots averaging 342.
Both defenses are also giving up at least 300 yards per game, and both run defenses are vulnerable.
The Raiders allow 134 rushing yards per game on 5.2 yards per carry, while the Patriots give up 104 at 4.4 yards per carry.
This could be a game where Ashton Jeanty really gets going, and even the Patriots backfield could have some success.
Drake Maye had a much better performance against the Bills, although he still turned the ball over. He’ll look to build off that performance, and he should have opportunities to do so.
The Raiders have given up the eighth-most passing touchdowns, so Maye and company can take advantage of that. They’re also allowing the sixth-most rushing yards, so Henderson and Stevenson should be able to help take some pressure off Maye.
The Raiders defense also gives up the eighth-most receptions to wide receivers and the seventh-most touchdowns to them.
Even though he’s a tight end, this should still bode well for Brock Bowers. He lines up all over the field and is a matchup nightmare. He should have a good performance here.
Maye and company will ride the momentum from last week and pick up another win.
Prediction: Patriots 27–24
Colts (2–2) vs. Steelers (2–2)
Prediction: Steelers 27–24
The Steelers offense has performed well, averaging 344 yards per game, and they’re going up against a favorable defense that allows 407 yards per game.
Indianapolis is giving up 261 yards through the air and 131 on the ground at 4.8 yards per carry. That should be a great matchup for the Steelers offense.
The Colts have allowed the third-most passing yards and the third-most receiving yards to running backs, so I expect Jaylen Warren and Rico Dowdle to be used in the passing game this week.
For the Colts, this should be another great opportunity to use their workhorse, Jonathan Taylor.
The Steelers give up 112 rushing yards per game at 4.3 yards per carry. Taylor is averaging 4.1 yards per carry right now, so I expect him to take advantage if the Colts give him the touches, which I fully expect them to.
The Steelers are allowing just 209 passing yards per game, while the Colts average 174 through the air. Still, I’ll look for Daniel Jones to have a decent game and keep Indianapolis in this one.
I think Rodgers and company will come away with the win. Both of their wins so far have come at home, and I expect them to win another one here.
Prediction: Steelers 27–24
Giants (3–1) vs. Commanders (1–3)
Prediction: Giants 24–20
We have another divisional game here.
Jayden Daniels is expected to return this week, while Jameis Winston looks to pick up another win as the Giants starter even though they traded for J.J. McCarthy last week. McCarthy is listed as QB2 this week.
I would expect the Commanders to run the ball. They average 4.2 yards per carry and 124 rushing yards per game, and they’re going against a defense that allows 4.7 yards per carry.
Dan Quinn and his offense need to use that to their advantage, especially with Daniels coming back this week.
Winston has a chance to attack a vulnerable Washington passing defense. The Commanders give up 242 passing yards per game and allow the fourth-most receptions to wide receivers and the second-most touchdowns to them.
Winston will hopefully look to get Malik Nabers more involved and have a big day against this defense.
While the Commanders are only giving up 93 rushing yards per game, teams are doing it on 4.0 yards per carry. This would be a good week for the Giants and Skattbo to average more than the 3.5 yards per carry he currently averages.
Harbaugh has these boys playing hard and playing well, and I like them in this matchup.
I think they’re able to keep this rolling and win in Daniel’s return.
Prediction: Giants 24–20
Vikings (4–0) vs. Saints (1–3)
Prediction: Saints 27–17
The Vikings are off to an impressive 4–0 start, while the Saints look to get back on track after losing their last two games.
The Saints offense is averaging 389 yards per game, while Minnesota is giving up 314 yards per game, but only 194 through the air.
This Saints passing attack is averaging 278 yards per game. This is a team that likes to sling it, and I don’t see that changing, especially with Travis Etienne out on IR.
For a Vikings offense that hasn’t performed particularly well, they should have a favorable matchup this week.
The Saints give up 212 passing yards per game and 147 rushing yards at 5.1 yards per carry. This is a great chance for Aaron Jones and company to attack this defense and chew up the clock.
With a vulnerable run defense, we could see more options and RPOs with Murray to take advantage of his skill set. If Justin Jefferson is out, they might rely even more on the running game.
The Vikings are also going up against a team allowing the most rushing yards and touchdowns to running backs, so Jones could have a big day.
I do think the Saints will be able to get back into the win column this week. Their offense will be able to outpace the Vikings offense.
Prediction: Saints 27–17
Sunday’s 4:00 PM Slate
Broncos (2–2) vs. Chargers (0–4)
Prediction: Chargers 27–24
We have a divisional matchup here, and the Chargers are really looking to get into the win column.
We have two defenses that have not played particularly well. Denver is allowing 388 yards per game, while the Chargers are allowing 347.
The Chargers offense has performed better, averaging 325 yards per game compared to Denver’s 286.
Omarion Hampton could be in line for a big game. The Broncos currently give up 142 rushing yards per game on 4.8 yards per carry, but they’re allowing 180 rushing yards per game in road games this year.
They also allow the third-most receiving yards to running backs.
Their OC, Mike McDaniel, should hopefully expose that with Hampton and use him to open up the deep passing game for Justin Herbert and the rest of the offense.
The Broncos are allowing 232 passing yards per game and could be without Patrick Surtain II.
Denver hasn’t done a great job running the ball so far, averaging 3.6 yards per carry, but the Chargers are allowing the eighth-most rushing yards to running backs. Maybe J.K. Dobbins or RJ Harvey can establish some dominance in the run game.
I liked what I saw from the Chargers even though they lost by a touchdown to Seattle, and I can see them finally getting their first win.
I do think it’s close, but the Chargers sneak out their first win here.
Prediction: Chargers 27–24
Lions (2–2) vs. Cardinals (1–3)
Prediction: Lions 31–28
We have two defenses that are struggling, with the Lions giving up 446 total yards per game and the Cardinals giving up 365.
Detroit, however, has one of the best offenses in the league, averaging 405 yards per game. The Cardinals offense has done decently, averaging 305 yards.
The Cardinals should look to attack on both the ground and through the air. This Lions defense is giving up 304 passing yards per game and 119 rushing yards on 4.4 yards per carry.
Maybe Jacoby Brissett can get Marvin Harrison Jr. more involved, along with Michael Wilson and Trey McBride, to really help this offense find its footing and take that next step forward.
Jeremiah Love, if healthy, could have a good day against this Lions team. Detroit allows the second-most rushing yards on the road at 165, while Arizona allows the fourth-most at home at 162.
Look for both teams to get their backs involved and attack these defenses.
Jahmyr Gibbs should be in line for a big day, and Love could have a huge day as well.
The Lions offense should fare well again, with the Cardinals allowing the most passing touchdowns so far and the Lions having the most passing touchdowns.
That could bode well for Jared Goff and the boys.
I’d expect Goff to throw multiple touchdowns again this week, and I think the Lions win this in a close shootout.
Prediction: Lions 31–28
49ers (4–0) vs. Seahawks (3–1)
Prediction: Seahawks 17–14
We have another divisional matchup here.
We have two offenses playing well, with the Niners averaging 389 yards per game and the Seahawks averaging 359.
Christian McCaffrey is always a part of the Niners’ game plan, but they are averaging 4.8 yards per carry so far and are playing a team that ranks fourth in receptions allowed to running backs.
Shanahan should take advantage of that and use CMC in the passing game, as they tend to do.
Now, they’re going up against a defense that allows just 144 passing yards per game, while the Niners have been averaging 251 through the air.
Does Brock Purdy get the best of this defense, or does the defense get the best of Purdy?
I do think Sam Darnold is going to be able to get some things going through the air. The Niners have allowed the fifth-most completions to quarterbacks, so Jaxon Smith-Njigba could be in line for another big game.
The Seahawks should also look to utilize their backs in the passing game as they go up against a team allowing the most receiving yards to running backs so far.
Both regular-season matchups last year were low scoring, and I actually expect the same this year.
I think the 12th Man will really be loud, and Seattle will win a close one.
Prediction: Seahawks 17–14
Sunday Night Football
Ravens (3–1) vs. Falcons (2–2)
Prediction: Falcons 27–21
The Ravens are expected to start Tyler Huntley if Lamar Jackson can’t go because of his injury, while the Falcons look to go on a three-game winning streak.
This Ravens offense has been on a tear, averaging 411 yards per game, with 241 through the air and 153 on the ground at 4.8 yards per carry.
But can they keep it up without Lamar?
On the other side, can this Falcons team maintain its offensive output of 372 yards per game?
They have a chance against this Ravens defense, which allows 329 yards per game.
Baltimore is giving up 100 rushing yards per game at 3.9 yards per carry, while Atlanta averages 181 rushing yards per game at 5.2 yards per carry.
Jonathan Taylor had a great game against this Ravens defense, and I would expect Bijan Robinson to have an even better one.
The Falcons offense runs through Bijan, and that’s no surprise. It should when you have a player as dynamic as him.
The Falcons passing attack has also looked a lot better with Michael Penix Jr. back, as he’s averaging 239 passing yards in his two games.
The Ravens have allowed the fourth-most rushing touchdowns to running backs, so I’d expect Bijan to find the end zone as well.
Drake London could also be in for a big day as he faces a defense that gives up the third-most receptions to wide receivers and the sixth-most receiving yards to them.
I like the Falcons to continue their hot streak and ride that momentum to a win at home on Sunday night.
Even with a big day from Derrick Henry, I’m taking Atlanta.
Prediction: Falcons 27–21
Monday Night Football
Bills (3–1) vs. Rams (2–2)
Prediction: Rams 34–30
We’ve got a quarterback showdown: Josh Allen vs. Matthew Stafford, along with two high-powered offenses.
The Bills average 398 yards per game, while the Rams average 427, and both teams are running the ball well.
Buffalo averages 139 rushing yards per game at 5.1 yards per carry, while Los Angeles averages 126 at 4.8.
I would expect both James Cook and Kyren Williams to get their fair share of carries in this one to attack those defenses, especially since both defenses are allowing 4.0 yards per carry.
This should also be a big day for the Rams passing game.
The Bills allow the fifth-most receiving yards to wide receivers, the second-most touchdowns to wide receivers, the fourth-most passing touchdowns, and the sixth-most passing yards.
The Rams average 290 passing yards per game, and Stafford has thrown for at least 300 yards in his last two games. He has a great chance to do it again.
Josh Allen has been outstanding this year, and the Rams allow the eighth-most passing touchdowns, so Allen should have another multi-touchdown passing game. He could also add a couple of rushing scores, as the Rams give up the seventh-most rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks.
The Bills defense will need to get some stops because this is a Rams defense that is allowing only 255 yards per game.
If this turns into a back-and-forth game, I think the Rams are better positioned to get a stop or two that Buffalo might struggle to get.
I think this will be an offensive showdown, with the Rams sneaking out the win.
Prediction: Rams 34–30
And Finally… The Jets
Jets (1–3) vs. Browns (3–1)
Prediction: Jets 21–17
As always, our last game of the week: the Jets.
Honestly, who would have thought the Browns would be on a three-game winning streak? Not many people, but they’ve played well enough to win their last three.
The Jets, meanwhile, played well enough to win Weeks 2 and 3 but were awful last week, especially offensively, against the Bears.
On paper, this is a pretty comparable matchup.
The Jets average 309 total yards per game, while the Browns average 307. The Jets defense is giving up 329 yards per game, while Cleveland is giving up 367.
The Jets offense needs to bounce back after a terrible Week 4 performance against the Bears.
The Jets will need to get Garrett Wilson a lot more involved than they did last week, along with Kenyon Sadiq.
Both teams are vulnerable against the run. The Jets give up 123 rushing yards per game at 4.3 yards per carry, while the Browns give up 113 at 4.6.
I fully expect both teams to try to establish the run, but neither has been particularly successful doing it.
The Jets average just 84 rushing yards per game at 3.4 yards per carry, while the Browns average 93 at 3.7.
Even with Denzel Ward, the Browns are giving up the fifth-most passing touchdowns, the eighth-most receiving yards to wide receivers, and the second-most touchdowns to wide receivers.
Hopefully, this will bode well for Garrett Wilson.
But I can’t wait to watch him and Ward matchup at times and see who gets the best of who.
The Jets have given up the third-most rushing touchdowns to running backs, so this could bode well for Quinshon Judkins. He could be able to find the end zone, and I expect him to.
Is this the week the Jets can finally get back into the win column?
I sure as hell hope so.
I’m picking with my heart again!
Prediction: Jets 21–17
Closing Thoughts
Man, I can’t wait to see what this week brings.
The Rangers are off to a great start after losing their first game. NBA preseason is back, and the regular season will be starting in a couple of weeks.
We should have another great weekend with college football and another exciting NFL weekend.
I hope y’all are doing well in fantasy football. Let’s get ready for a great weekend of football and baseball as well. The playoffs have been super exciting, and I hope y’all have been tuning in.
As always, Lace up. Tap in.
– Jett Garden
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